Philip Chua Business Blog

Posts Tagged ‘resistance’

The Euro's rebound following the announcement of the EU rescue package proved exceptionally short-lived. Markets immediately smelled blood and added to EUR shorts, driving EUR/USD below additional key technical levels, most notably the 1.2450/1.2500 2009 lows, which now serves as the critical daily closing resistance zone. However, the past week's decline came up short of the 2008 lows at 1.2330 and this level will act as the next trigger to further declines. In the midst of this EUR weakness, we are starting to get the feeling that Euro-bearishness is reaching extreme levels. That does not mean that the EUR won't see lower in the week ahead; in fact we anticipate further declines to the 1.2150/1.2200 area in the short-run (based on an Elliot Wave count), but from there the likelihood of a base/correction forming increases greatly.

Conflicting signals as we remain trapped below ‘channel’ resistance with two consecutive small ’spike lows’ ahead of the 26-wek moving average at 89.30. The Ichimoku ‘cloud’, which thickens and drops mid-May, suggests one should continue to hold a short position while the moving averages turned to a long one mid-February….

Not easy and not obvious as we remain trapped between ‘channel’ resistance and pivotal support at 88.00. Elements of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chart are mixed with moving averages hinting at a long position and the ‘cloud’ dropping and thickening to a very good size late May. Random moves will probably…

EUR having decisively broken and held above its Mar 03’10 high at 1.3735 has cleared the way for a move higher towards the 1.3787 level, its Feb 17’10 high. A clean penetration and negation of that level will leave the pair targeting its bigger resistance located at the 1.3838 level,…

The latest rally has stalled again against ‘channel’ resistance which happens to lie at the 200-day moving average at 92.25. Though well below the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’, slightly worrying is that the 9 and 26-week moving averages have crossed to a buy while all other elements of this chart suggest…

Consolidation to corrective price action dominated most of GBP’s activities the past week pushing it a higher close at 1.5697. This is coming on the back of its decline off its 2009 high at 1.7041. While that continues to be seen, we expect its resistance zone between the 1.5830 and…