Philip Chua Business Blog

Posts Tagged ‘consensus’

AMID the general optimism over equities in Asia and the emerging markets, strategists at Barclays Wealth have sounded a note of caution over valuations in Asia. This runs counter to the consensus view that Asian growth is set to outstrip that of developed economies – a point that isn’t in dispute – and that market weakness is a buying opportunity.

Says Aaron Gurwitz, Barclays Wealth managing di… more

Retreating from ‘channel’ and Fibonacci retracement resistance, as expected, as consensus opinion sees the yen weakening to 99.00 in twelve months’ time. The weekly close below the 9-week moving average has turned momentum bearish and many other yen crosses are doing something similar. All other elements of the ‘cloud’ chart…

December’s employment report was somewhat of a disappointment. Many were expecting a small increase in employment to be reported for December, even though the consensus was calling for a small decline. Our own forecast called for a larger than consensus drop and we had repeatedly noted that the optimism so…

(SINGAPORE) Economic momentum may have fallen off a little more than expected in the last quarter, but economists say the underlying recovery in Singapore remains on track.

Indeed, with flash Q4 GDP data in hand, at least two forecasters yesterday jacked up their estimates of Singapore’s 2010 full-year growth, adding to the market consensus that was already above the official forecast of 3 to 5 … more

The nonfarm payroll employment survey ended the week on a positive note from an economic data perspective. While the consensus expectation was that the U.S. economy had shed fewer (125K) jobs in November than in recent months, the actual figure showed what was nearly an unchanged level of employment (-11K)….

SINGAPORE’S consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.8 per cent in October from a year earlier, due to lower housing and holiday travel costs. The fall was slightly bigger than consensus expectations of a 0.4 per cent dip in October’s prices from last year’s relatively high base.

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Consensus is building in the Senate for legislation that would significantly weaken the Federal Reserve by stripping its power to oversee banks and hand that job to a single federal bank regulator.

It’s a bit of an awkward phase in the U.S. economic recovery as it goes through its “tweener” stage. The growing consensus is that some kind of recovery is underway and that the worst has past. However, the friction now is whether it is too early to talk about exit…

The data picture over the past week was a bit of a mixed bag and overall disappointed markets. Equity markets slipped and bond yields fell further. Although there were no very negative numbers and the trend is still for improvement, most data were slightly below consensus expectations and market doubts…