Philip Chua Business Blog

Archive for the ‘Forex Trading’ Category

While the Greenback was the strong performer of last week, the Japanese yen took that title for this week. Although we did see a general gain in the USD, it was no match for the JPY which was boosted from this week’s risk aversion.

No matter what we do or how long our day goes on for, we eventually retreat to our homes in the evening. In similar fashion, and because the housing market is at the epicenter of this Great Recession, economists find themselves constantly going back to scrutinizing housing markets. A sustainable…

Chairman Bernanke’s testimony this week stated the increasingly obvious reality of this recovery “Notwithstanding these positive signs, the job market remains quite weak, with the unemployment rate near 10 percent and job openings scarce.” Meanwhile, the Obama administration projected 9.8 percent unemployment at the end of this year. On the…

The global recovery trade (aka the reflation trade) took a serious stumble this past week as a spate of disappointing US data suggested the US recovery is in greater jeopardy than previously thought. As the largest national economy, the US setbacks undermine the global outlook, which was already under pressure…

The week in currency trading opened with markets poised for fresh risk appetite. With China back from vacation, the PBoC reiterated its pledge to maintain moderately loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy to support growth in an attempt to shape expectations following the reserve ratio increase just before the…

Greece remained on the radar screen as massive private sector strikes on Wednesday and negative statements from rating agencies emphasised the uncertain outlook. Standard & Poor’s said late on Wednesday that it might cut Greece’s BBB+ rating by one or two notches within a month. This drove EUR/USD down further…

Sovereign debt levels, in absolute and relative terms, will continue to be a problem for all too many as governments step into the black hole of banks’ deleveraging – nationalisation by the back door. The FX market is overstretched in many areas and likely to correct some of February’s moves….

The dollar remains on a firm footing. In spite of attempts by US central bank chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues to dampen rate hike expectations triggered by last week’s increase in the discount rate by repeatedly stating that interest rates would remain “at exceptionally low levels for an extended…

The Federal Reserve 25 basis point discount rate increase on Thursday to 0.75% was not a market moving event. The first Fed hike in either the discount rate or the more important fed funds rate in almost two and a half years will have little direct economic impact. It had…

The latest rally has stalled again against ‘channel’ resistance which happens to lie at the 200-day moving average at 92.25. Though well below the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’, slightly worrying is that the 9 and 26-week moving averages have crossed to a buy while all other elements of this chart suggest…